Preview: 1Q18 GDP growth at 0.3% q-o-q
- Bad weather and dismal construction data have trimmed my GDP growth forecast to 0.3% q-o-q. There is still potential for construction revisions to boost that.- The backloaded bad weather might be initially smoothed through by the ONS’s methodology. Similar episodes have yielded positive surprises.
- Although in line with the Consensus and the BoE, 0.3% is likely to cause a hawkish response owing to the negative Consensus skew and Carney’s cautious comments.
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