Report
Philip Rush
EUR 44.20 For Business Accounts Only

Preview: low UK inflation and unemployment

  • UK inflation dipped in June, but I no longer forecast a rebound in July. Petrol price weakness in the AA survey added to that from second-hand car prices weighs on my inflation forecasts: CPI 2.6%, RPI 3.4%. Both are 0.1pp below consensus.
  • The LFS unemployment rate dipped to 4.5% in May, and I expect another decline to 4.4% in June, contrary to the consensus. Only a 2bp drop is needed, and the exiting cohort’s bias is worth 4bp, with the underlying trend also assisting slightly.
Provider
Heteronomics
Heteronomics

Heteronomics provides UK-centric macro research. A hallmark attention to detail delivers a depth of analysis beyond what the sell side now delivers. Clients can also experience events that privately provide insights on these topics. Have a bespoke request for research or an event? Let us know. Clients can expect assistance with their own requirements to the extent it doesn't impinge upon other clients. Think of it as retaining an expert economist, without the large overhead.

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Philip Rush

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