Preview: the UK’s last big week of 2017
- UK inflation data for November are likely to dip on recreation prices, in my counter-consensus view. This fall is to 2.9% y-o-y on the CPI and 3.9% on the RPI.- The unemployment rate is only 0.5bp away from rounding down to 4.2%, and I expect that in the release for October on Wednesday, contrary to the consensus. Moreover, I am 0.1pp more bullish in expecting wage growth (ex-bonus) of 2.3%.
- The BoE’s latest monetary policy decision is likely to avoid any additional hawkish messaging as the inflation news since November is marginally to the downside. A return to neutral ultimately remains necessary and is supported by Brexit progress.
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