Preview: UK splurging the surplus before Brexit
- The UK's 2018 Budget must balance good fiscal news against a significant spending commitment to the NHS. I expect borrowing projections to become broadly flat, while the fiscal targets keep being met, but Brexit news may up-end the outlook.- Borrowing in 2018-19 is likely to be revised much lower, to under £25bn on the PSNB and about £31.5bn on the CGNCR. The £9.2bn improvement in the latter should be subtracted from T-Bill issuance, in my view, to aid financing’s flexibility.
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