UK: 40% recovery in May-20 split unevenly
- Retail sales rebounded by double the expected amount in May-20, with the 12% m-o-m rise recovering 40% of the level lost in the lockdown. A third of the sales growth was from the already booming online sector, with most other areas weaker.- GDP will be supported by the early recovery in retail and industry, while other sectors take longer to turn. I maintain my Q2 forecast for GDP to fall 20% q-o-q.
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