UK: above-potential pace through 1Q19
- The LFS unemployment rate declined again to 3.8% in Mar-19 while GDP growth rebounded to 0.5% q-o-q. Ongoing demand-driven declines in the unemployment rate suggest growth is averaging an above-potential pace contrary to most views.- Total wage growth disappointed slightly, partly because of upward revisions raising the base effect. A squashed finance bonus share has not proven sustainable for about 15-years, so a rapid rebound looks likely to sustain AWE growth in 2Q19.
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