UK Activity: less brisk but more resilient
- The ONS’s third estimate of Q2 GDP growth remained at 0.3% q-o-q, as expected. H2 2016 growth was trimmed and Q1 raised by 0.1pp to leave a smoother profile.
- A surprise decline in service sector activity in July flips the risks around my Q3 GDP growth forecast of 0.4% q-o-q to now lie on the downside.
- Consumption growth is slowing slightly less than previously thought, and a significantly better savings profile revises away some of the gloomier UK stories.
- The current account deficit was £7bn wider than expected owing to investment income flows that are no longer estimated to have improved recently. The stock position implies much less of a problem than the current account flows suggest.
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