UK activity: soft but stable outlook
- The ONS’s third estimate of Q1 GDP growth was unrevised at 0.2% q-o-q, as expected, albeit not yet delivering the upgrade that the BoE pencilled in.
- Service sector growth of 0.2% m-o-m in April matched my forecast and points to it growing by5% in Q2. My 0.4% GDP growth forecast is on the cusp of rounding to 0.3%, which would disappoint the BoE and help discourage a rate hike in August.
- Real incomes per employee declined again in Q1, but overall resources increased amid higher employment. How much consumers are spending through the income shock is potentially masked by structural changes in the labour market.
- The current account deficit widened slightly to £16.9bn. Significantly reduced negativity in investment income flows shrunk the deficit since the referendum. Sustainability still depends on Brexit and the finance sector’s response.
Heteronomics provides UK-centric macro research. A hallmark attention to detail delivers a depth of analysis beyond what the sell side now delivers. Clients can also experience events that privately provide insights on these topics. Have a bespoke request for research or an event? Let us know. Clients can expect assistance with their own requirements to the extent it doesn't impinge upon other clients. Think of it as retaining an expert economist, without the large overhead.
Unfortunately, this report is not available for the investor type or country you selected.
Browse all ResearchPool reportsReport is subscription only.
Thank you, your report is ready.
Thank you, your report is ready.