UK Budget: manifesto and mitigation measures
- This Budget has been a long time coming, so it had a wide range of commitments to deliver upon, while also tackling the Covid-19 shock. Measures beyond that were not overly surprising, with the expected degree of fiscal space broadly used.- The new government’s envisaged role for a bigger state is already in evidence and may cause fiscal rules to change. Current conditioning forecasts miss the severe shock of the past few weeks, so the pressures are tighter than officially printed.
- Planned gilt issuance in 2020-21 is the most since 2012-13, mainly owing to the highest CGNCR in four years. Forthcoming RPI changes are set to make many of these gilt holders worse off, but that probably won’t present an issuance problem.
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