UK Budget preview: supply shocks
- Borrowing is better than had been expected. The financing requirement is likely to be several billion smaller, with the T-Bill stock temporarily shrinking further.- The OBR has forwarned an intent to downgrade its productivity assessment, although I expect lower equilibrium unemployment to temper the growth effect.
- All fiscal targets will continue to be met, albeit with policy changes trimming the headroom slightly. Housing is a focus, potentially with a new garden city coming.
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