UK: bullish trends beneath bias after Brexit
- Political shenanigans continue to cloud the UK macro outlook, but as branches on the decision tree are trimmed in the coming weeks, the bullish underlying macro trends in the UK should become more evident.- Surveys are soft, but uncertainty biases them so they should rebound with clarity. Vacancies should also recover rather than rises in the unemployment rate.
- Some disinflationary pressures should discourage the MPC from returning rates to the path they otherwise would have been on, but hikes are appropriate, in my view. I expect a rise in May 2020 with roughly one a year towards a 1.5% neutral.
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