Philip Rush
EUR 110.57 For Business Accounts Only

UK Cycle: BoE should see a tightening labour market

- Faster employment growth lowered the unemployment rate to 4.0% in Nov-18, contrary to expectations. The labour market still looks to be tightening.
- The BoE will provide its annual update of supply-side conditions in its 7-Feb Inflation Report. I expect it to maintain its 4.25% NAIRU estimate.
- Stronger wage growth suggests an effective tightening of the labour market. Excess demand and inflation provide hawkish pressure, albeit neutered by Brexit.

Heteronomics provides UK-centric macro research. A hallmark attention to detail delivers a depth of analysis beyond what the sell side now delivers. Clients can also experience events that privately provide insights on these topics. Have a bespoke request for research or an event? Let us know. Clients can expect assistance with their own requirements to the extent it doesn't impinge upon other clients. Think of it as retaining an expert economist, without the large overhead.

Philip Rush

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