UK Cycle: BoE should see a tightening labour market
- Faster employment growth lowered the unemployment rate to 4.0% in Nov-18, contrary to expectations. The labour market still looks to be tightening.- The BoE will provide its annual update of supply-side conditions in its 7-Feb Inflation Report. I expect it to maintain its 4.25% NAIRU estimate.
- Stronger wage growth suggests an effective tightening of the labour market. Excess demand and inflation provide hawkish pressure, albeit neutered by Brexit.
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