UK Cycle: bullish trends stretch before slowing
- UK employment growth increased further in Dec-18 despite GDP’s yearend weakness. Higher participation has bolstered the bullish trend but tends to be temporary.- Slower employment growth need not prevent further falls in the unemployment rate, which looks to be creating an increasingly tight labour market.
- Wage growth is also likely to ease back in the new year, although the extent should be curtailed by an unwind of the depressed bonus share, in my view.
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