UK cycle: up-skilled surge in tight labour market pay
- The unemployment rate was little changed in Oct-18 at 4.08%, as expected, but volumes improved. An adverse cohort effect in Nov-18 risks a temporary rise in the UR, but I still forecast further falls through 2019.- Flows have been better recently, and the still strong vacancies support my view that upward pressure on the UR is not a disinflationary demand shock.
- Surging wage growth is a surprisingly strong signal of the tightening labour market. Hours are not distorting the current move, unlike earlier in the year, although some support may be coming from up-skilling flows within the labour market.
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