UK: employment booms before Boris-bounce
- Employment unexpectedly surged by 208k 3m-o-3m in Nov-19, even ahead of any potential Boris-bounce to other activity data. The labour market still looks much healthier to me than widely perceived elsewhere, including by policymakers.- Vacancies also started to recover in Q4, although most new job adverts will have been held until the new year. A bullish vertical normalisation in the Beveridge curve has begun, in my view, which would remove its recent disinflationary signal.
- Headline wage growth has slowed slightly, but disinflation and falling productivity support underlying pressures. Unit wage cost growth is more consistent with rate hikes than cuts, but that doesn’t mean the MPC won’t mistakenly cut next week.
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