UK: employment flipping the V-narrative
- The unemployment rate remained at 3.9% in May, contrary to all expectations yet again. The UR is now over 3pp below the BoE’s ludicrous nowcast from May.- Last month, economists latched onto falling employment in the early PAYE returns as evidence of collapse, despite extremely low correlations. Those data have been revised up and confirmed to be well-wide of the mark.
- Alternative indicators of earnings and vacancies perform much better. The former indicates a substantial bounce in June while the latter’s recovery has faltered.
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