Philip Rush
EUR 110.57 For Business Accounts Only

UK: employment flipping the V-narrative

- The unemployment rate remained at 3.9% in May, contrary to all expectations yet again. The UR is now over 3pp below the BoE’s ludicrous nowcast from May.
- Last month, economists latched onto falling employment in the early PAYE returns as evidence of collapse, despite extremely low correlations. Those data have been revised up and confirmed to be well-wide of the mark.
- Alternative indicators of earnings and vacancies perform much better. The former indicates a substantial bounce in June while the latter’s recovery has faltered.

Heteronomics provides UK-centric macro research. A hallmark attention to detail delivers a depth of analysis beyond what the sell side now delivers. Clients can also experience events that privately provide insights on these topics. Have a bespoke request for research or an event? Let us know. Clients can expect assistance with their own requirements to the extent it doesn't impinge upon other clients. Think of it as retaining an expert economist, without the large overhead.

Philip Rush

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