UK: GDP fall fades hawkish bias for Bank rate
- UK monthly GDP crashed by 0.4% m-o-m amid a record decline in the car manufacturing industry. The concentration of maintenance schedules should lead to a supportive unwind in the months ahead but that is too late for 2Q19’s health.- My tracking estimate for 2Q19 GDP growth has now collapsed by 0.4pp to a fall of -0.1% q-o-q. Although the shock should be transitory, the MPC is now likely to wait for confirmation before sending stronger guidance about its hawkish trade-off.
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