Report
Philip Rush
EUR 55.29 For Business Accounts Only

UK: GDP limping from lows in May-20

- UK GDP bounced by only 1.8% m-o-m in May-20 from its depressed lows. Although the ONS confirmed an initial recovery in retail, manufacturing and construction, these sectors are now proven to be outliers ahead of lockdown easing elsewhere.
- I remain relatively gloomy about the rebound, as strong signals are mostly about the leading sectors and say more about timing than the extent of recovery. Such disappointment should motivate another QE expansion, in my view.
- Separately, the OBR has materially re-profiled the shock towards my forecast, with two years to recover the output level, a persistent loss relative to the previous trend, and a belated rise in the UR. The BoE may follow suit soon.
Provider
Heteronomics
Heteronomics

Heteronomics provides UK-centric macro research. A hallmark attention to detail delivers a depth of analysis beyond what the sell side now delivers. Clients can also experience events that privately provide insights on these topics. Have a bespoke request for research or an event? Let us know. Clients can expect assistance with their own requirements to the extent it doesn't impinge upon other clients. Think of it as retaining an expert economist, without the large overhead.

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Philip Rush

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