UK: GDP rebound begins in Dec-19
- UK GDP ended 2019 on a strong note after a 0.3% m-o-m December rebound. The constant average level of activity in 4Q19 was depressed by dodgy retail sales data and manufacturing disruption around a potentially disorderly Brexit.- Surveys are consistent with this rebound sustaining into 1Q20, but some additional strength would be needed to hit 0.4% q-o-q, and that seems unlikely amid the virus shock. As such, I trim my forecast to match my 0.3% q-o-q tracking estimate.
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