UK: GDP starts recovery within a brutal Q2
- UK GDP crashed by 20.4% in Q2 as many economic activities ceased during the lockdown. The staged re-opening of the economy had more traction in June, though, with output growing by 8.7% m-o-m, cumulatively recovering almost a third of the fall.- The brightest areas remain those that resumed earliest, while enormous growth rates in decimated areas make a dent that is hard to see amid the damage.
- Further easing of lockdown in July allowed more businesses to re-open and should support an even brisker bounce then. However, I remain relatively gloomy about the extent of normalisation that can occur amid persistent changes.
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