UK: inflated June to be crushed by methodology
- UK inflation data was broadly slightly stronger than the Consensus expected in Jun-20 as the CPI rate increased to 0.6% and the RPI to 1.1%. Clothing, furniture, and recreation prices were all surprisingly high, with some offset in restaurants.- Probable payback in clothing prices means the fundamentals of this release cause little change to my CPI forecast. That same pressure knocks my RPI forecast down by about a tenth, despite the headline outcome being in line with my expectations.
- August is an exception to the broader changes as the ONS has somewhat incredibly decided to incorporate the “eat out to help out†scheme’s discount at an item level. That smashes almost 0.6pp from inflation in August.
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