UK inflation: broad resilience against May-19 airfares
- UK inflation data for May-19 contained a broad mix of small upside surprises that are suggestive of underlying resilience, even while the headline rate slowed.- Disinflation was mostly concentrated in airfares, where weakness was already in my forecast, so I was positively surprised by the headline rates of 2.0% on the CPI and 3.0% on the RPI (index at 289.2).
- Further falls remain likely to occur in the coming months until a trough forms after the energy utility price cap cut in October.
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