Heteronomics - UK inflation: Dec-19 disrupted by complex seasonal

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Heteronomics

Philip Rush

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UK inflation: Dec-19 disrupted by complex seasonal

- UK inflation disappointed expectations in Dec-19 as an early index date drove airfares to undershoot even my below-Consensus forecast. 70% of that difference should unwind in Jan-20 and the seasonal looks set to surprise positively next year.
- Underlying pressures still appear to have troughed, but the backwards-looking MPC can highlight the subdued headline of 1.3% as supporting its dovish detour. I maintain my forecast for a mid-2020 trough at 1.1% after a bounce in Q1.

15/01/2020 3 EN

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Heteronomics

Heteronomics provides UK-centric macro research. A hallmark attention to detail delivers a depth of analysis beyond what the sell side now delivers. Clients can also experience events that privately provide insights on these topics. Have a bespoke request for research or an event? Let us know. Clients can expect assistance with their own requirements to the extent it doesn't impinge upon other clients. Think of it as retaining an expert economist, without the large overhead.

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Philip Rush

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UK inflation: Dec-19 disrupted by complex seasonal

Riksbank: hopeful for vaccine dividend

BoE: preparing policy like a Scout

Italy: Dragging in Draghi

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