UK inflation: devilish detail extending trends
- UK inflation was marginally stronger on the CPI and weaker on the PPI in Feb-19. Partially offsetting surprises lift my March forecast lightly before lowering it.- Airfares and household energy prices are still set to significantly raise inflation to April before the latter unwinds enough in October to fall below target again.
- Annual updates to weightings extend trend changes in average rates and seasonality. The latter is likely to remain a source of surprise, while some market benchmarks might move almost 20bp further as they keep converging to reality.
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