UK inflation: Jun-19 stability ahead of a slowing
- UK inflation data for Jun-19 were broadly in line with expectations, as it printed at 2.0% on the CPI and 2.9% on the RPI with an index of 289.6.- Clothing and furniture were a little stronger while recreation was slightly softer than I expected. Both are likely to weigh during 3Q19, though.
- Oct-19 remains the trough in my CPI inflation forecast at 1.2% y-o-y. A cut in the household energy utility cap drives this, while the resilience in median inflation at 2.0% suggests underlying inflationary pressures have not fallen below-target.
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