UK inflation: mixed shocks boost basis in Aug-19
- UK inflation data for Aug-19 contained mixed surprises as recreation prices broke another record on the downside to dominate the CPI while airfares raised the RPI.- The dip to 1.7% on the CPI and 2.6% on the RPI raised the CPI-RPI basis by 20bp. Such divergence has become more politically sensitive, but the bit attributed to the controversial formula effect has been trending lower on method tweaks.
- Reduced imported inflationary pressures drove the decline again in August while domestic pressures remain broadly consistent with the target. How Brexit resolves will determine the outlook for both parts in the years ahead.
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