UK inflation: passing the peak
- UK CPI inflation surprised with an increase to 3.1% y-o-y in November, which looks likely to be its peak, while RPI inflation has probably already peaked.- Airfares are likely to be relatively soft in December owing to the index date probably keeping most measured journeys before Christmas rather than the expensive trips straddling the holiday.
- Games and toys have been strong but negative payback may not occur yet. New computer game releases have been backloaded, thereby raising the average price.
- My inflation forecast remains relatively soft in 2018, but this is a result of my comparatively hawkish BoE call rather than a reason for the BoE not to keep hiking.
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