UK: inflation rebound stunted in Sep-20
- Inflation rebounded in September to 0.53% y-o-y on the CPI and 1.13% on the RPI, consistent with the headline Consensus, but disappointing my forecast. Food caused much of the difference, partly because of methodology on the restaurant side.- With more of the August decline now appearing to be VAT-related, my m-o-m forecast for April-20 is revised up, but the annual rate remains broadly lower, especially in the interim. These data are unlikely to affect the MPC’s forthcoming policy easing decision.
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