UK inflation: Sep seasonal disappoints again in 2019
- UK inflation data for Sep-19 disappointed consensus expectations again, consistent with the pattern of previous years amid ongoing shifts in seasonality.- Driving most disappointment was airfares, which carry a higher weight in the RPI than the CPI, so the RPI was more disappointing at 2.4% than the CPI at 1.7%.
- October seasonals have been stable, so immediate payback seems unlikely. The slippage in domestic cuts of inflation and the median may prove more concerning to the MPC and contribute dovish pressure to each of the plausible Brexit scenarios.
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