UK inflation: temporary resurgence in Jan-20
- UK inflation broadly exceeded Consensus expectations in Jan-20, with the CPI rate printing at 1.77% and the RPI at 2.7% (index of 290.6). However, the CPI was only 3bp above my forecast, caused by clothing, while the RPI was precisely in line.- A small dip remains likely next month, ahead of falls in April that re-test the trough. Beyond that, inflation rates should gradually rise, including on the trimmed services-related metrics where the BoE has dovish concerns.
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