UK: labour resilience ahead of Brexit resolution
- The unemployment rate remained at 3.8% in Oct-19, as I expected, but is now on the cusp of rounding down, contrary to the consensus forecast for an increase.- Employment and hours have remained resilient to the Brexit uncertainty, despite its depressing effect on vacancies, which should rebound in the new year.
- Average wage growth has slowed, but not the associated inflationary pressures. Real wages remain relatively rapid while persistently poor productivity growth stokes unit wage cost pressures.
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