UK: locking down the economic ruins
- The UK government has decided to follow other European states again into a sweeping nationwide lockdown. Such an aggressive response is more severe than I assumed, so I am downgrading my forecast again to contain an even deeper winter recession.- Additional fiscal support is slim but should postpone the bulk of the unemployment rise again. Deficits are also raised through lost revenue. Monetary policy is likely to continue absorbing the issuance and be ready to go into overdrive again if the gilt market breaks.
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