UK: Mar-20 sales reveal sectoral level hits
- Retail sales crashed by 5.1% m-o-m in Mar-20. That refers to an average level between 1 March and 4 April so is still supported by the pre-lockdown period.- Using a lead to daily excess universal credit determinations as a spline, allows us to fit a current sales level for each sub-sector. The revealed change between subsectors ranges between alcohol and clothing up and down over 70% respectively.
- Maintaining current estimated levels through April would take total retail sales down another 10%. Updating my GDP forecast for the latest news nudges Q1 down another tenth to 1.1% and Q2 down 1pp to 5%.
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