UK: no sales binge between prohibitions
- UK retail sales failed to recover from the November lockdown. Stricter prohibitions on activity in January have caused spending on cards to collapse back to May levels, which will be especially bleak for retailers who never enjoyed a festive consumption binge.- Mobility metrics have also stepped down in the new year, and now indicate a GDP retreat to its June levels. I assume the same in my bottom-of-consensus forecast, where the trough is shallower but is likely to have a flatter recovery than the first lockdown.
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