UK: output recession began in Feb-20
- UK GDP disappointed expectations by declining 0.1% m-o-m in Feb-20 as wet weather washed out construction to a 1.7% decline. Such moves hardly register relative to the massive declines that the ongoing lockdown is causing.- I expect roughly 3% m-o-m declines in both March and April, leaving Q1 and Q2 down by 1% and 4% q-o-q respectively. Initially estimated falls would probably be revised to look more severe later in the year before they get better again.
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