UK: passing the peak rebound pace into August
- Output appears to have grown briskly in July, but many high-frequency and leading indicators are suggesting this was the peak pace.- Almost half of the furloughed employees haven’t returned yet, and many of the remaining 13% may not have jobs to return to before support ends on 31 October.
- Vacancies remain near their lows, with the previous boom in part-time work reversing. A lack of new jobs available for a smooth reallocation of resources seems set to create a spike in unemployment, weighing on the recovery in GDP.
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