Heteronomics - UK: PMIs diverge as bias intensifies in Mar-19

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Heteronomics

Philip Rush

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UK: PMIs diverge as bias intensifies in Mar-19

- The pace of activity growth implied by the services PMI collapsed again in Mar-19 as the index fell by 2.4 points to 48.9. It is biased to overstate the effect of uncertainty, which has intensified recently amid political gridlock.
- A slight slowing in comparable sectors remains likely, but I maintain my relatively bullish forecast for 1Q19 GDP growth of 0.4% q-o-q, with 0.0% m-o-m in Feb-19.

03/04/2019 2 EN

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Heteronomics

Heteronomics provides UK-centric macro research. A hallmark attention to detail delivers a depth of analysis beyond what the sell side now delivers. Clients can also experience events that privately provide insights on these topics. Have a bespoke request for research or an event? Let us know. Clients can expect assistance with their own requirements to the extent it doesn't impinge upon other clients. Think of it as retaining an expert economist, without the large overhead.

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Analysts

Philip Rush

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UK: PMIs diverge as bias intensifies in Mar-19

Riksbank: hopeful for vaccine dividend

BoE: preparing policy like a Scout

Italy: Dragging in Draghi

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