UK: political risk subsides on a massive majority
- The Conservative Party won a landslide majority, thereby assuring a smooth withdrawal from the EU and reducing risks around future trade negotiations. Political uncertainty is subsiding to its lowest in over five years, in my view.- Substantial seat gains for the SNP raises the pressure for another independence referendum, perhaps in 2022 if it wins a majority in Holyrood. And disenfranchised unionists in Northern Ireland also raise longer-term tensions around the union.
- Soul searching after the spectacular defeats of the LibDem and Labour parties should cause a shift in the political centre. That would diminish the depth of the opposition risk, while the likelihood is anyway low under the new arithmetic.
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