UK politics: Boris versus Bremain
- Since my baseline forecast changed on 25 July to a no-deal Brexit, markets have priced in more of the risk, but that risk has also risen recently.- Plans to prorogue parliament for five weeks has left Europhile MPs with little time to pass legislation, or otherwise attempt to avoid a no-deal Brexit.
- I now subjectively see the relative probabilities of a deal, no deal, and no Brexit at 35:55:10 (35:45:20 before), with significantly more Sterling downside likely.
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