UK politics: Brexit vs socialism for Sterling
- A general election now looks likely to be held in October. Time to reach a deal has shortened while the UK negotiating position has weakened.- Brexit outcomes are becomingly increasingly polarised. I now see the relative probabilities of a deal, no deal and no Brexit at 25:55:20 (35:55:10 before).
- Sterling should have a quirkily non-linear relationship with the election result. There is only a narrow window of positivity where a Labour government can pursue a softer Brexit but without the numbers needed to implement a socialist agenda.
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