UK politics: election payoff profiles
- A general election now seems set to be held on 12 December. The Conservatives are likely to win a small majority and ratify its Brexit deal, although there is a bimodal distribution of its lead over Labour in the polls.- Most pollsters indicate a large majority with about a 10% probability of a hung parliament, while others indicate a 33% risk. That risk could decay with proximity to the vote, although I expect the outcome to lie in between the two sets of polls.
- Sterling should have a complex relationship with the election result. I now see the relative probabilities of a deal, no deal and no Brexit at 65:20:15 (55:30:15 before).
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