UK politics: intransigence meets incompetence
- The government has lost its second attempt to secure support for its Brexit deal by 149 votes, versus 230 first time. A Wednesday vote is set to reject no deal before one on Thursday leads the government to request an Article 50 extension.- A third meaningful vote may arise as the cost of EU conditions is compared. An expensive extension to the summer is likely, though that may not thaw relations. An unlikely general election wouldn’t help, but a new Conservative PM might.
- Intransigent positions among an arguably incompetent current crop of political actors have significantly raised the risk of no deal. I now see the relative probabilities of a deal, no deal, and no Brexit at 45:35:20, versus 55:25:10.
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