UK politics: leading soft Brexit or bust
- Softer Brexit proposals presented a position that senior Brexiteers could not get behind, leading to both the Brexit and Foreign Secretaries to resign.- The credibility of the no deal backstop has reduced further, which increases the EU’s ability to bounce the UK position even softer. That would be supported by opposition MPs, who the government will ultimately need to pass the policy.
- A new Prime Minister is likely required to deliver a hard Brexit, although this may not come until near the next election, so I now expect a softer Brexit, but continue to see it as an unstable equilibrium that will eventually break harder.
- Slightly better growth prospects from a soft Brexit support further BoE rate hikes at least as long as Sterling stays soft, in my view.
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