Report
Philip Rush
EUR 117.14 For Business Accounts Only

UK politics: polls converge on a majority

- The general election is only ten days away, and the swing of support to Labour from Remain alliance parties has raised fears of a 2017 repeat. However, the swing is substantially smaller and later this time, so an upset seems increasingly unlikely.
- Disagreement among pollsters has converged around a single central tendency following shifts mostly from the low-lead pollsters. A historically significant surprise would be needed to prevent a Conservative majority.
- I have raised my probability of a Conservative majority and a prompt Brexit by 15pp to 80%, owing to the swing during the election campaign and the time decay reducing the room for substantial shocks.
Provider
Heteronomics
Heteronomics

Heteronomics provides UK-centric macro research. A hallmark attention to detail delivers a depth of analysis beyond what the sell side now delivers. Clients can also experience events that privately provide insights on these topics. Have a bespoke request for research or an event? Let us know. Clients can expect assistance with their own requirements to the extent it doesn't impinge upon other clients. Think of it as retaining an expert economist, without the large overhead.

Analysts
Philip Rush

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