UK politics: polls still point to a small majority
- Polls into today’s general election suggest the Conservative lead has slipped slightly, but all pollsters predict a majority outcome. The lower standard error of surprises on the day dominates the falling average, lifting my probability to 85%.- I continue to expect a small working majority for the Conservative party. That would occur with about a 7-point lead, consistent with the recent poll drift extending on the day, and close to where YouGov’s MRP model now lies.
- Exit polls at the previous five elections have been broadly accurate, so the call may yet become even clearer at 10pm ahead of the official result tomorrow. The outcome I expect should support Sterling as the residual tail risk gets removed.
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