UK politics: showdown postponed again
- The 27 February sitting of political theatre now looks set to be a damp squib, with the main parliamentary clashes postponed to March.- The “meaningful vote†on the government’s tweaked Brexit deal is scheduled for 12 March. If a proper state-dependent break clause is contained in a codicil, it may pass. Otherwise, an extension request is likely to be approved on 14 March.
- A short delay might become a long one and no Brexit. New government scheduling and Labour positioning slightly shift my probabilities of a deal, no deal, and no Brexit from 55:30:15 to 55:25:20. No deal remains the default even if delayed.
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