UK politics: swerve, crash or stop (55:30:15)
- The UK parliament continues to show its opposition to everything, including a no deal Brexit. Recent amendments are more signalling than substance, though.- A political swerve to approve a deal based on the existing one remains the most likely scenario, in my view (55%). Brinkmanship leaves a crash out with no deal as a significant risk (30%), though, as it is the default outcome despite opposition.
- Stopping the exit from the single market and customs union (15%) is appealing to many commentators, but it still looks more like hope over reality, in my view.
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