Philip Rush
EUR 111.14 For Business Accounts Only

UK politics: swerve, crash or stop (55:30:15)

- The UK parliament continues to show its opposition to everything, including a no deal Brexit. Recent amendments are more signalling than substance, though.
- A political swerve to approve a deal based on the existing one remains the most likely scenario, in my view (55%). Brinkmanship leaves a crash out with no deal as a significant risk (30%), though, as it is the default outcome despite opposition.
- Stopping the exit from the single market and customs union (15%) is appealing to many commentators, but it still looks more like hope over reality, in my view.

Heteronomics provides UK-centric macro research. A hallmark attention to detail delivers a depth of analysis beyond what the sell side now delivers. Clients can also experience events that privately provide insights on these topics. Have a bespoke request for research or an event? Let us know. Clients can expect assistance with their own requirements to the extent it doesn't impinge upon other clients. Think of it as retaining an expert economist, without the large overhead.

Philip Rush

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