UK politics: try then try again
- The European Council has approved the Withdrawal Agreement and declaration on future trade without adding concessions since the drafts. Whether the UK achieves an orderly Brexit or not is now mainly up to the UK House of Commons.- The DUP is now officially opposed to the government’s unamended deal, so it has little chance of passing parliament on the first attempt. After a small defeat, I still expect its acceptance in the UK, but via a messier route.
- Only a minor concession is likely needed to fix the deal, which seems more likely than the extreme political breaks - i.e. away from Brexit or towards no deal. However, the risk is rising of a break back towards a hard Brexit before Spring-19.
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