UK preview: UR fall to 4.1% and CPI inflation rise
- Tuesday’s labour market report looks likely to beat market expectations again with a renewed fall in the unemployment rate to 4.1% in June. I expect headline wage growth to hold steady, but the ex-bonus rate is close to rounding lower.- CPI inflation’s run of disappointments could end on Wednesday as I expect an upside surprise rise to 2.6% y-o-y. Weighting differences in the RPI constrain the inflationary effects to leave my forecast at 3.4% (282.2), in line with the consensus.
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