UK: price rises over-dressed in Oct-20
- Inflation increased by a tenth more than we expected in October to 0.7% y-o-y on the CPI and 1.3% on the RPI. Upside news in clothing prices is likely to be short-lived owing to the payback relationship into Novembers being the strongest of the year.- The extent of the seasonality around yearend remains a key uncertainty in our forecast profile. A return towards the target should only occur in the Spring amid sizeable base effects, while the inflation outlook is unlikely to threaten the BoE’s easing programme.
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